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Flyable conditions are wrong


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b3nn0
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Tim Dawson - 3/3/2021 9:57:54 AM
It isn't unusual to have a CAVOK island with lots of low cloud around, in fact the red on that image shows clearly that the bad stuff is patchy. A solid bit of red, there for a while, over a CAVOK airfield (ideally with a webcam) would clearly be an area where the forecast should be looked at.

These patches where certainly not there. It was the clearest of days, probably 50km+ of visibility, you wouldn't find a single cloud if you were searching for them. And certainly also no fog anywhere near (Temp. 13°, dewpoint -6°).

TBH, considering how the overlay changes from "Everything perfect" to "Ceiling 0ft" from one pixel to the next, it seems a bit like you are interpreting "no data for this location" as "0ft" or something like that (not knowing the code or formats involved of course, but that's just what it looks like).

Here is a webcam image of Innsbruck from around the same time where my Screenshot was made:

Tim Dawson
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It isn't unusual to have a CAVOK island with lots of low cloud around, in fact the red on that image shows clearly that the bad stuff is patchy. A solid bit of red, there for a while, over a CAVOK airfield (ideally with a webcam) would clearly be an area where the forecast should be looked at.
b3nn0
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It does feel a bit buggy from time to time though..
E.g. Innsburck right now - severe CAVOK, but lots of read that says "Ceiling 0ft"...
Webcam also shows perfect conditions. No cloud or fog anywhere near (see 13/-6 temp/dew)..

Edited 3/2/2021 12:26:04 PM by b3nn0
Tim Dawson
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You're definitely correct that a sandstorm wouldn't be picked up by this feature. Overall though most people are reporting an excellent correlation with reality.
Tom1969
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Hello,

today i have take a look to the weather conditions in different locations. For Germany its looks very great. I think there can be a problem in the last day with the Sahara sand storm. I also started last week an the weather looked fantastic on ground but in 2500 ft you can't see far distances. I thinks this can also a point what you also can not see from the ground ! 

For me just now it works perfect ! 

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Chris, if this is ongoing, would you be able to give us a location so that we can pass it along to our forecasters? Webcam locations are the best, because then they can monitor the effectiveness of the forecast in real time and adapt it. Thanks!
Tim Dawson
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It is a forecast, so there is no wrong or right, only accuracy under certain conditions. If you've noticed that the forecast often doesn't represent actual conditions in a particular geographical area, this is very useful information and telling us about the area will help us go back to the forecast providers and help them improve the product. Have you noticed a particular area in Switzerland that is the worst affected? It does not surprise me that a very mountainous region would be the most difficult to forecast.
Sfera72
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Yes, same here. If SD shows flyable weather this inaccurate, it is not useable. If we would talk about a weather forcast for 5 days, it is ok, but not the actuall conditions.
Chris_LSZO
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My settings:

Forecast could be wrong, yes. But today the whole day there was CAVOK. If the software shows a forecast whitch is so incredible wrong, they should show better nothing. There is no value for a pilot.

Chris
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pilot-byom
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Chris_LSZO - 2/19/2021 5:15:33 PM
pilot-byom - 2/19/2021 4:37:58 PM
It all depends on your set individual thresholds, so you may check them first.


I could set whatever I want, blue sky, 10km visibility and IFR-conditions at the same time is impossible.

Chris

When you enable the 'Flyable' option you get your parameters shown at the very bottom of the screen together with coloring.
You also get the local forecast when touching to a point on the map. Can you do a screenshot showing theses settings too?

If there is an error in the software this way is the easiest to pinpoint any discrepancies between your settings and colors shown.
To me it looks fine and I really appreciate Skydemon took the choice to show the data source forecast time as well:


And - don't forget it is neither METAR nor anything measured shown, it is the forecast of a computer model - same worse as the current virus video game discussions ... sorrry, but could not resist to point to the political dumbhead arguments. If the forecast was simple wrong, you can't blame this software, only question it's feature value.

Edited 2/19/2021 7:42:00 PM by pilot-byom
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